The Limits of Chinese Diplomacy in Afghanistan: Mediation Initiatives (2014–2021)

Abstract

This paper examines China’s involvement in Afghanistan’s peace process from 2014 to 2021, a period marked by significant regional transformations. As the United States withdrew, China’s engagement intensified, driven by strategic interests in maintaining stability, fostering its economic interests, and addressing security concerns posed by groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). While initial optimism prevailed, China’s mediation efforts ultimately proved unsuccessful. A content analysis of Chinese Embassy communications from 2011 to 2021 sheds light on China’s approach to peace in Afghanistan. The findings reveal China’s persistent reliance on facilitating talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government and on reducing tensions between the Afghan and Pakistani governments. Hindered by its reliance on Pakistan and the Taliban’s evasion of negotiations, China lacked the leverage needed to mediate effectively, highlighting the complexities of its role in the region. This paper contributes to our understanding of the limits of China’s diplomacy and the challenges faced by external actors in volatile regions such as Afghanistan.