Executive Summary

This paper examines the current shifts in global geopolitics and their implications for India, particularly the impact of the Trump administration’s new policies.

It argues that the world is in a state of flux, “adrift” rather than moving towards a new order. Major powers are at cross-purposes and seek to rework the international situation to their own advantage. Western dominance of the global order is fading, multilateralism is declining, and great-power rivalry is increasing. China’s choices have become critical to international developments. The second Trump administration’s policies represent structural and lasting shifts in United States (US) policy, with changes in climate policy, governance, attitudes towards multilateral institutions, and relationships with allies. Geopolitical consequences may include improved US–Russia–China relations, opportunities for middle powers, and an accelerated unravelling of the non-proliferation regime.

For India, this changing landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. The paper recommends:

• Focusing on building India’s own capacity to create outcomes that promote its interests;
• Concentrating on the extended neighbourhood (the subcontinent, Southeast Asia [SEA], and Northeast Asia [NEA]);
• Pursuing initiatives to integrate India’s periphery and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR);
• Evolving foreign economic policy and pursuing trade agreements with the US and European Union (EU); and
• Seeking a modus vivendi with China.

The paper concludes that India should take advantage of the current hinge moment to pursue necessary policy changes that may be difficult in normal times, as it did in 1991.

The post Aspects of the Changing Geopolitical Order first appeared on CSEP.

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Excerpt

This is what the U.S. and India relationship is built upon – the courage and determination of millions who have set out to build stronger ties through their work and enormous contributions – my dad’s story is a familiar one in the larger U.S.-India story. We are so grateful to all those who have helped build up this partnership over so many years. So, on any objective scale, we have done well, very well.

But we cannot rest on these successes; we can’t assume they will continue; and we also have to now focus again on what President Biden and Prime Minister Modi said about delivering for the world. When I was serving as Ambassador, I recall so clearly what what President Obama and the Prime Minister used to tell us, which was that the real measure of success in the relationship was not what we would do for each other, but what we were doing for others in the world.

On this measurement, I am proud to report on our success, and this, if where I would say the real promise of the relationship lies.

Watch the full speech here:

The post The United States & India: A Partnership of Progress and Promise first appeared on CSEP.

India has exhibited relatively continuous growth for over seven decades to reach low  middle-income levels and is on the point of escaping from widespread poverty. But the  country has also had bursts of growth followed by some stagnation and again another burst. The first burst was for about a period of 15 years after independence, following 100 years or more of stagnation. Then followed some stagnation, or slow growth, until the 1980s. The major strategic change in economic policy in the early 1990s led to another burst of growth lasting more than two decades. There has been another slowdown since the early 2010s, though it cannot be characterised as stagnation. But it could be an indicator of the difficulties that countries face in their effort to ascend to the next level—the upper middle-income category.

The post Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: The Imperatives of State Strengthening first appeared on CSEP.

The paper is a reflection on the phenomenon of urbanisation in India as seen within the global context. It touches upon the history of urbanisation, discusses its current state and makes enquiries into its future.

While we live in times of unprecedented urban expansion, there is a lack of adequate attention on the subject in both academic and policy circles. Estimates show that India’s rate of urbanisation has been slower than anticipated. That brings to light the discussion between those who celebrate a slowly urbanising India, wondering how the country would have managed if its towns and cities had grown even faster, and those who see this slow urbanisation as a potential concern for the quality and speed of the development process in the country.

The process of urbanisation is closely linked to higher economic growth and industrialsation. The paper discusses the transfer of labour from agriculture to manufacturing and services, which are typically located in urban areas, which then has a positive impact on growth. However, in India, whereas  services have grown rapidly, there appears to be a break in recent decades in the trend of the rising share of  urban income in GDP.

As Indian levels of urbanisation rise, managing and governing cities is an area that deserves serious thought and re-imagination. With city governance lying mainly with the All India Services – the IAS and IPS heading municipal and other bodies, municipal bodies have a limited role to play. This lowers the prestige and dignity of being employed with the latter. We must now channelise the vast pool of talent in the country towards better planning and governance of cities, rooted in a municipal framework.

With the emergence of remote work set-ups during the Covid-19 lockdowns and other solitary experiences of living life,  from the rise of e-commerce to food delivery and digital books, there could be an impact on urbanisation patterns and hence on the structure of large cities. With the potential impact of climate change, the effects of industrialisation and emissions on cities could bring about transformative changes in the way we will urbanise. What will these changes be, only time will tell, but the fact that India is still only 35-36% urbanised suggests that there is great potential for policies that promote more liveable Indian cities where citizens can lead fulfilling urban lives.

The post The State of Urbanisation: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow first appeared on CSEP.

ABSTRACT

In times of uncertainty, how might one predict and plan India’s future? This lecture evaluates how India could analyse significant geopolitical trends to develop scenarios for the future, and assess the prospects of these scenarios becoming reality. Since half of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is accounted by the external sector, the lecture focuses on developments taking place around India rather than in India. India has critical external dependencies in energy, technology, and capital that affect India’s transformation into a modern and prosperous country. India must, therefore, carefully track and respond to geopolitical developments in its neighbourhood and beyond.

Keywords: India, Transformation, US, China, Neighbourhood, Geopolitics, Prediction 

The post Thinking About India’s Future first appeared on CSEP.