Aspects of the Changing Geopolitical Order

Executive Summary

This paper examines the current shifts in global geopolitics and their implications for India, particularly the impact of the Trump administration’s new policies.

It argues that the world is in a state of flux, “adrift” rather than moving towards a new order. Major powers are at cross-purposes and seek to rework the international situation to their own advantage. Western dominance of the global order is fading, multilateralism is declining, and great-power rivalry is increasing. China’s choices have become critical to international developments. The second Trump administration’s policies represent structural and lasting shifts in United States (US) policy, with changes in climate policy, governance, attitudes towards multilateral institutions, and relationships with allies. Geopolitical consequences may include improved US–Russia–China relations, opportunities for middle powers, and an accelerated unravelling of the non-proliferation regime.

For India, this changing landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. The paper recommends:

• Focusing on building India’s own capacity to create outcomes that promote its interests;
• Concentrating on the extended neighbourhood (the subcontinent, Southeast Asia [SEA], and Northeast Asia [NEA]);
• Pursuing initiatives to integrate India’s periphery and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR);
• Evolving foreign economic policy and pursuing trade agreements with the US and European Union (EU); and
• Seeking a modus vivendi with China.

The paper concludes that India should take advantage of the current hinge moment to pursue necessary policy changes that may be difficult in normal times, as it did in 1991.