State of the Sector: Critical Energy Transition Minerals for India

Foreword

As the world shifts towards sustainable development, securing a reliable supply of Critical Energy Transition Materials (CETMs) has never been more vital. These minerals are essential for renewable energy technologies, such as electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines, which are central to achieving global climate and clean energy goals.

The transition to a clean energy system is expected to significantly increase the demand for these CETMs. In a scenario that aligns with the Paris Agreement, the share of total demand for clean energy technologies is projected to rise sharply over the next two decades: over 1.5x for copper, 1.9x for rare earth elements, 2.1x and 2.2x for nickel and cobalt, and nearly 8.7x for lithium (International Energy Agency 2021). Electric vehicles and battery storage have already surpassed consumer electronics as the largest consumers of lithium and are projected to overtake stainless steel as the largest end-user of nickel by 2040. The strategic importance of CETMs therefore cannot be overstated.

Like most progressive nations, India has embarked on several low-carbon technology initiatives and has committed to achieving net-zero emission by 2070. To meet this target, India must secure a responsible and reliable supply chain for CETMs, especially given the thrust for Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) in manufacturing these technologies. Moreover, concentrated supply chains and limited investments in these resources can lead to potential supply disruptions and high price volatility, which could hinder the deployment of low-carbon technologies, affecting India’s sustainability goals.

This report underscores the need for a comprehensive strategy to ensure a reliable supply of CETMs crucial for India’s clean energy and low-carbon technology initiatives. It aims to develop a detailed understanding of CETMs, fostering a richer dialogue around this crucial agenda.

The report explores various strategies for securing these essential materials, offering valuable insights into the CETM value chain – from exploration and extraction to processing and recycling. The report also addresses the geopolitical, environmental, and social dimensions associated with CETM security. Its recommendations aim to inform policy stakeholders and accelerate the creation of a resilient and sustainable supply chains for these minerals.

We urge all stakeholders to engage with the findings and recommendations, which are crucial to securing the raw materials necessary for India’s clean energy transition. Together, we can build a clean, resilient and low-carbon future, ensuring India’s continued progress and prosperity.

List of authors:

CSEP

Rajesh Chadha (Senior Fellow), Karthik Bansal (Research Associate) and Ganesh Sivamani (Associate Fellow) at Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) developed the content on themes related to the criticality framework, mining, exploration and technology, and contracts and agreements.

IISD

Siddharth Goel (Lead, Electric Mobility & Renewable Energy Supply Chains), Tom Moerenhout (Associate), Swasti Raizada (Policy Advisor), Saumya Jain (Policy Analyst), Steven Haig (Policy Analyst), Pranati Chestha Kohli (Consultant) and Cina Vazirzadeh (Consultant) at International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) developed the content on themes related to mineral availability and imports, refining and manufacturing, extent of value addition, contracts and agreements, geopolitics, international policies and strategies, and mineral-specific information for nickel, lithium, and manganese.

ICRIER

Amrita Goldar (Senior Fellow), Kartik Nair (Research Associate), Md Sarwar Ali (Research Associate) and Ritika Verma (Research Associate) at Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) developed the content on themes related to circularity, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, markets, and finance.

CEEW

Rishabh Jain (Senior Programme Lead, Technology Futures), Dhruv Warrior (Programme Associate) and Vibhuti Chandhok (Research Analyst) at Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) developed the content on themes related to bottom-up assessment for shortlisting minerals, mineral demand estimation for low-carbon technologies (LCTs), extent of value addition, investments, India’s policy developments, and mineral-specific information for copper, rare earth elements (neodymium), and silicon.

SSEF

Vivek Chandran (Director, Critical Raw Materials), Anurag Mishra (Senior Program Manager) and Meghana M (Intern) at Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation contributed by conceiving the study, outlining the objectives, scope and structure of the report and chapters, providing overall coordination support across collaborators, and editing the report to ensure coherence and quality throughout the report.