Multi-layered and Multi-Agency: China’s Engagements with Myanmar and Operation 1027

Abstract

This chapter discusses the relationship between China and Myanmar following the 2021 coup, emphasising the impacts of Operation 1027. Launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) against Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC) in October 2023, the operation aimed to eliminate scam gangs, primarily driven by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army’s (MNDAA) territorial ambitions in the Kokang region. China’s tacit endorsement of the operation led to a partial ceasefire in northern Shan State but exacerbated conflicts in Rakhine State, affecting India’s strategic investments.

The analysis highlights China’s engagement strategies with the SAC and non-state armed actors, revealing the complexities and limitations of its influence. It examines the motivations behind China’s heightened focus on scam gangs in 2022, linking it to domestic political concerns and efforts to manage international perceptions. The chapter concludes by assessing the unforeseen consequences of Operation 1027, including the weakening of the SAC and the challenges China faces in mediating a ceasefire. The strategic implications for regional security are underscored, calling for deeper analysis to fully grasp China’s evolving role in Myanmar’s unstable political landscape.