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The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU-CBAM) is a climate policy tool aimed at reducing carbon leakage by imposing carbon tariffs on imports from non-EU countries with lower environmental regulations. The policy is particularly imposed on the emissions-intensive-trade-exposed (EITE) sectors such as iron and steel, cement, aluminium, and fertilisers. This study uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of the CBAM on India, with a focus on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impact, sectoral competitiveness, exports, fiscal revenue, and household welfare. Three policy scenarios are simulated to understand the possible outcomes of CBAM implementation: (i) PCARBON: a domestic carbon tax with revenue retained by India; (ii) CBAM: a carbon tax on EU exports where revenue accrues to the EU; and (iii) PCARBON + CBAM: a hybrid taxation model where carbon tax rates are halved and revenue is split between India and the EU.

The post Key Insights | Assessing the Distributional Implications of the EU’s CBAM on India: A CGE Analysis first appeared on CSEP.

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Sambandh conducts data-driven research to map infrastructure and connectivity links between South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Bay of Bengal and the larger Indo-Pacific regions. The initiative was launched in 2020.

The post Key Insights | The Role of Uttar Pradesh in Promoting Connectivity with Nepal: Linking Borders, Boosting Growth first appeared on CSEP.

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Our novel approach, which focuses on the total number of those employed rather than unemployment rates across different demographic and employment segments, while also disregarding subsidiary employment, allows us to draw definitive conclusions about changing employment patterns. Concentrating on the period from 2017–2018 to 2023–2024, our analysis reveals that: (1) employment has been increasing steadily throughout this period; (2) female employment is rising faster than male employment; (3) there is relative stagnation in cropping sector employment; (4) the non-cropping sector, which includes livestock and higher-value agriculture, accounts for two-thirds of the employment growth; (5) employment growth is higher for those with greater educational attainment, ranging from 0.4% annually for illiterates to 6.1% annually for graduates and above; (6) of the 103 million additional employment during this period, an estimated 46 million are either employers or regular salaried workers; (7) own-account workers accounted for an additional 34 million, and unpaid family work stood at 23 million; however, we find that the bulk of this cannot be identified as distress work; (8) casual work, whether in public works or private, has stagnated throughout this period.

The post Key Insights | India at Work: Employment Trends in the 21st Century first appeared on CSEP.

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India has employed four primary strategies to provide healthcare: strengthening government health services, expanding mandated health insurance for formal sector employees, publicly funded health insurance for the bottom 40% of the population, and voluntary health insurance for the affluent. However, a significant proportion of the population in the third and fourth quintiles remains uninsured. It has been argued that this uninsured population has the ability to pay (ATP) for healthcare, but it is unclear how much they can afford. A related question is whether they are willing to pay, even if they can afford it.

The core question surrounding the debate on the Ability to Pay (ATP) has been whether the cost of healthcare for a household should be the sole criterion for ATP or if it should consider other factors that influence households’ decisions regarding healthcare expenditure.

The analysis reveals that less than 10% of the total households in the third and fourth quintiles are able to meet the minimum level of expenditure for both healthcare and non-healthcare goods. Most households have to choose one merit good over others. It is found that about half of the total households cut back on healthcare expenditure to achieve more than the minimum level of expenditure for other merit goods, such as food, housing, and education.

Since the household’s ATP varies, it becomes crucial to calculate the amount that households can allocate for their healthcare needs. The affordability calculation, applying threshold criteria (a minimum of 6% of total household expenditure for healthcare and 52% of total household expenditure for non-healthcare goods), suggests that 30% of households in the third and fourth quintiles spend less than 6% of their total household expenditure on healthcare. This means they can allocate a maximum of INR 5,693 [5] per year, including both inpatient and outpatient services. 8% of households with sufficient resources can expend a maximum of INR 24,466 [6] per year. For the remaining 62% of households, who can just afford to pay 6% of their household expenditure, they can pay about INR 13,344 to 15,132 per year.

The post Key Insights | Covering the Uncovered With Health Insurance in India first appeared on CSEP.

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India must adopt a comprehensive strategy to enhance its manufacturing competitiveness. By dismantling protectionist policies, embracing deeper FTAs with key partners, enhancing internal labour mobility, investing in clusters and industrial parks, improving regulatory frameworks, and prioritising technological innovation, India can better compete in the global marketplace and leverage emerging opportunities. This is not the time to regress but to advance.

The post Key Insights | Why is India Struggling With Manufacturing Competitiveness? first appeared on CSEP.

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This study examines the drivers of state-level initiatives in primary healthcare and elementary education in Karnataka, focusing on urban areas over the decade from 2014 to 2024.

Karnataka is often praised in nationally prominent indices as a progressive state with strong fiscal, health, and education indicators. However, our analysis questions this categorisation, suggesting that Karnataka’s good performance is limited to certain indicators, where it is only marginally better than the national average. In many other health and education indicators, such as out-of-pocket expenditure and learning levels, Karnataka’s performance is sluggish. The state exhibits stark intra-state disparities, and the uptake of public health and education facilities compared to private ones is poor. Despite historically undertaking prominent initiatives, Karnataka is not a national leader in health and education. It possesses a strong financial resource base, with one of the highest Per Capita Income (PCIs) in India, and an active, skilled civil society. We analyse the drivers of state-level initiatives to understand why Karnataka has not become a national leader with high uptake and quality of primary health and elementary education in urban areas. Our focus is on initiatives funded or ideated by the state during 2014–2024, specifically those addressing elementary education and primary care as a whole.

The post Key Insights | Drivers of Primary Healthcare and Elementary Education Initiatives in Karnataka (2014–2024) first appeared on CSEP.

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This study examines the (mis)match between any new intermittent, also known as variable renewable energy (VRE), generation and demand growth profiles, scrutinising annual, seasonal, daily, and hourly surpluses and deficits. We use 2023 as a base year for annual energy requirements and historical data for RE supply and demand patterns.

The post Key Insights | India’s Renewables Target Falls Short of Growing Demand: Planning and Time-of-Day Balancing Gaps first appeared on CSEP.

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The uptake of battery-driven electric vehicles (EVs) has been rising in India. EV sales have increased from 0.6% of total vehicle sales in Financial Year (FY) 2018–19 to 7% in FY 2023–24. This trend is expected to continue, as India aims for EVs to make up 30% of all vehicle sales by 2030.

In hard-to-abate sectors such as transport, where clean technologies have not matured and are not yet commercially viable, incentives are a common tool to promote widespread EV uptake. Both Central and State governments have made concerted efforts to incentivise EV adoption. In addition to budgetary support through demand and manufacturing incentive schemes, the Central government offers tax incentives in the form of concessional tax rates on EV purchases. Many State governments further encourage EV adoption by setting specific targets, offering demand incentives, and providing tax exemptions on vehicle registrations. While budgetary provisions consist of a fixed implementation period and allocation, tax incentives often lack sunset clauses and predefined notional outlays.

While these incentives are well-intentioned, promoting EVs through tax concessions comes with opportunity costs, as the revenue loss limits the government’s capacity to fund other spending requirements. Moreover, the continued reliance on tax concessions raises concerns about the long-term viability of this approach to boost EV adoption.

This paper examines the impact of EV uptake on three tax streams: Excise and Value Added Tax (VAT) losses from fuel switch to electricity (which is a well-known issue), revenue forgone from concessional Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates and Compensation Cess exemptions; and state losses from Motor Vehicle (MV) tax exemptions. The study focuses on India’s passenger car and two-wheeled vehicle segments to illustrate how impacts on government revenue collection vary with vehicle segment, owing to differences in vehicle price, fuel mix, tax rate, and the scale and rate of EV penetration.

The post Key Insights | The Fiscal Impact of India’s EV Transition: Tax Revenue Losses Go Beyond Fuel first appeared on CSEP.

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This paper examines the growing challenges of urban health in India, focusing on the disparities between the urban poor and non-poor populations. The study utilises multiple data sources, including the National Sample Survey (NSS), National Family Health Survey (NFHS), Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI), and government health statistics, to analyse trends in health outcomes, access to services, treatment-seeking behaviour, and out-of-pocket spending on health. The analysis compares urban and rural areas, emphasising inequalities across wealth quintiles and highlighting the increasing vulnerability of urban slum dwellers.

The post Key Insights | Addressing Urban Health Challenges in India: Shifting Focus to the Urban Poor first appeared on CSEP.

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Based on new evidence, this paper offers policy recommendations for an Indian critical minerals strategy in Africa. It aims to explain why, where, and how India can build strategic collaborations with mineral-rich countries in the region. In a geopolitically charged and rapidly evolving critical minerals landscape, it identifies African priorities, highlights Indian interests, and finds synergies, presented as nine policy pathways.

India’s ambitious plans to transition to a sustainable and resilient energy future rely on its access to critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt (Ministry of Mines [MoM], 2023). The country’s demand for critical minerals is projected to rise exponentially, almost fourfold by 2030. Although its domestic reserves, including 5.9 million tonnes of lithium ore, could help meet some of the demand, converting them into mineable resources will take time and will still fall short of achieving self-sufficiency (Press Information Bureau [PIB], 2023). This presents New Delhi with two paths to tread simultaneously: one, to adopt policy reforms in the mining sector to boost exploration and mining domestically; the other, to engage proactively with mineral-rich geographies overseas—including Australia and countries in Africa and Latin America—to create secure supply chains.

This paper focuses on the latter. The National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM), announced in January 2025, underscores the importance of acquiring critical mineral assets abroad (MoM, 2025). The mission outlines the instruments it can utilize in this pursuit, the resources allocated towards this effort and emphasizes India’s comparative advantages. This includes deploying the Geological Survey of India for mapping services, extending inter-ministerial support to public and private companies through an empowered committee that provides subsidies for mining and the development of evacuation infrastructure, among other initiatives.

The post Key Insights | India, Africa and Critical Minerals: Towards a Green Energy Partnership first appeared on CSEP.

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Universal Health Coverage (UHC), a cornerstone of global health policy, aims to ensure that everyone, everywhere has access to quality, affordable healthcare without suffering financial hardship. While financial protection through health insurance is a crucial aspect of UHC, the effectiveness of such schemes hinges on the underlying strength and equity of the healthcare system itself. This paper examines the case of India, a nation actively pursuing UHC applying health insurance model as key strategy, to investigate the critical question: Can India achieve UHC while simultaneously addressing the diverse healthcare needs of its population, particularly the most vulnerable segments?

The post Key Insights | Health-Seeking Behaviour and Equity in Public Health Expenditure in India first appeared on CSEP.

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The global push towards a net-zero future by 2050 hinges on a successful transition to clean energy technologies. This transition requires a significant increase in the production and deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, wind turbines, electric vehicles (EVs), and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). All of these technologies rely heavily on a range of raw materials known as critical minerals.

India has set ambitious targets for installing renewable energy capacity and EV adoption, but currently faces significant import dependency for many requisite critical minerals. Ensuring a resilient and sustainable supply of critical minerals is a complex challenge with significant geopolitical and economic implications.

This paper aims to:

• Analyse the structure and dynamics of global critical mineral supply chains.
• Identify the key bottlenecks and challenges in these supply chains, particularly concerning extraction, processing, and manufacturing.
• Evaluate the specific challenges faced by India in accessing critical minerals.
• Recommend policy interventions and strategic options for India to secure its critical mineral needs for a successful clean energy transition.

The post Key Insights | Critical Mineral Supply Chains: Challenges for India first appeared on CSEP.

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India is relying on electrification of different energy end-uses to move away from fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As part of its effort to make the electricity grid green, the country has set a target to increase non-fossil-fuel-based installed capacity to 500 GW by 2030 from about 200 GW in FY 2023-24. Many of the climate mitigation strategies like rolling out electric vehicles are being justified based on the expectation that the electricity grid, which has historically depended largely on coal-fired thermal power plants, is fast turning clean. Greening India’s electricity is also viewed as important to protect the country’s export capability under the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment regimes.

Emissions factor of electricity, expressed in gCO₂ per kWh, measures the average carbon burden of electricity. It is used to estimate carbon footprint of electricity consumption. To understand the progress in decarbonisation of a sector or the economy at large, it is critical to take stock of the emission factor of the country’s electricity. Based on a data-driven analysis, the research insights have brought to light why or why not India’s electricity grid is turning cleaner fast enough and the possible challenges to materialise the decarbonisation plan.

The post Key Insights | Moving to a Cleaner Future: Is India’s Electricity Grid on Track? first appeared on CSEP.