How China Engages South Asia: In the Open and Behind the Scenes

REPORT SUMMARY

This is the second report in a multi-year research project on China’s expanding influence in South Asia, from Afghanistan to Myanmar and Nepal to Sri Lanka. It offers a comprehensive
framework to understand the range, methods, and implications of China’s rising influence which has profound implications for the region’s political, economic and security future.

While much attention has been paid to China’s economic and security presence, the authors argue for a shift towards examining China’s less visible, long-term strategies of influence—particularly in the political, regulatory, cultural, and informational domains. There is significant research on China’s non-traditional means of influence in other regions such as Europe and Southeast Asia. This report provides an empirical survey of China’s influence strategies in South Asia by prioritising South Asian perspectives on China’s rise in the region.

The breadth of China’s presence in South Asia has increased since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013. China has become a key trading partner and investor in infrastructure, as well as a provider of military supplies. Yet, beyond these visible sectors, China is also quietly shaping regulatory standards, education, media, and political contexts across the region. The reports throw light on two neglected aspects of China’s regional outreach: the agency of smaller South Asian states in drawing China in, and the diversity of China’s tools behind the scenes—ranging from party-to-party diplomacy to Buddhist soft power and influence operations.

The second phase of the project has 12 case studies across five thematic sectors: civil society and culture, economy and governance, conflict mediation, defence and security, and influence operations. These are arranged along a spectrum of types of engagement: from the more visible (‘in the open’) to opaque (‘behind the scenes’). While these case studies do not allow for sweeping generalisations, they offer crucial empirical insights into the complexity of China’s strategies, their varying impacts and the role of South Asian actors. This is of particular relevance to policymakers in governments, as well as other actors engaging with China across the region — including industry, media and civil society.